2018, 2020, 2022, 2024. Four full market cycles since we started. Most of the firms that launched alongside us in 2018 are gone, folded, repositioned, or quietly out of the game. We're still here. Some of that is luck. Most of it isn't.
2018
We started Xenith two months after the 2018 collapse. Conferences were empty. Half the "Web3" funds were rebranding as something else. That's exactly when the founders who actually believed showed up at our door.
2020
Capital floods are bad for portfolio companies, not just for LPs. Founders who took 5x what they needed in 2021 paid for it in 2023, sometimes with the company. Discipline at the round size beats discipline at the entry price.
2022
When everything correlates, your "diversified" portfolio isn't. Real diversification comes from backing different mental models, not different sectors. We doubled down on infrastructure founders whose work would matter regardless of price action. Those companies are doing well now.
2024
The next cycle is built during the worst part of this one. We wrote more first checks in late 2023 than in any quarter since 2019. Most of those companies are now our top performers.
How this shapes our discipline
We don't time markets. We size for downside. We say no to founders we like but lack conviction in, even when capital is cheap. We say yes to founders we believe in even when capital is scarce. That's the only edge that compounds.
If you're building during a quiet part of the cycle, that's when we want to talk. contact@xenith.vc.